観測情報に基づく建物倒壊確率を考慮した津波避難シミュレーション

Abstract

Tsunami evacuation simulation is important to take measures for reducing human loss effectively from earthquakes and subsequent tsunamis. However, so far there has been no simulation case studies in which the building damage is estimated using the up-to-date knowledge of earthquake engineering. We first identified the underground structures and the vibration characteristics of wooden houses in the target area, a fishing village in Wakayama Prefecture, based on the microtremor observations on the ground as well as inside the houses. Then we predicted the building damage by using the nonlinear response analysis for specifically tuned structural models, together with the strong ground motions estimated in detail by using the obtained underground structure models. After that we simulated the situation of tsunami evacuation considering road blockade due to collapsed buildings. Based on the results we found that we need a well-designed plan for smooth evacuation considering the detailed situation of the target area.