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j.ijid.2020.04.021.pdf | 444.99 kB | Adobe PDF | 見る/開く |
タイトル: | Changes in testing rates could mask the novel coronavirus disease (COVID-19) growth rate |
著者: | Omori, Ryosuke Mizumoto, Kenji https://orcid.org/0000-0002-2748-6560 (unconfirmed) Chowell, Gerardo |
著者名の別形: | 大森, 亮介 水本, 憲治 |
キーワード: | COVID-19 Basic Reproduction Number Growth rate Models Statistical |
発行日: | May-2020 |
出版者: | Elsevier BV |
誌名: | International Journal of Infectious Diseases |
巻: | 94 |
開始ページ: | 116 |
終了ページ: | 118 |
抄録: | Since the novel coronavirus disease (COVID-19) emerged in December 2019 in China, it has rapidly spread around the world, leading to one of the most significant pandemic events of recent history. Deriving reliable estimates of the COVID-19 epidemic growth rate is quite important to guide the timing and intensity of intervention strategies. Indeed, many studies have quantified the epidemic growth rate using time-series of reported cases during the early phase of the outbreak to estimate the basic reproduction number, R0. Using daily time series of COVID-19 incidence, we illustrate how epidemic curves of reported cases may not always reflect the true epidemic growth rate due to changes in testing rates, which could be influenced by limited diagnostic testing capacity during the early epidemic phase. |
記述: | 新型コロナウイルス報告数は流行を反映しない可能性を示唆 --検査陽性報告数のみを用いた流行解析には注意が必要--. 京都大学プレスリリース. 2020-05-01. |
著作権等: | © 2020 The Author(s). Published by Elsevier Ltd on behalf of International Society for Infectious Diseases. This is an open access article under the CC BY-NC-ND license (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc- nd/4.0/). |
URI: | http://hdl.handle.net/2433/250721 |
DOI(出版社版): | 10.1016/j.ijid.2020.04.021 |
PubMed ID: | 32320809 |
関連リンク: | https://www.kyoto-u.ac.jp/ja/research-news/2020-05-01-2 |
出現コレクション: | 学術雑誌掲載論文等 |
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