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タイトル: Threshold phenomena with respect to the initiation of depopulation in a simple model of foot-and-mouth disease
著者: Itao, Kenji
Omata, Fumiya
Nishikawa, Yoshitaka  kyouindb  KAKEN_id  orcid https://orcid.org/0000-0003-3313-1990 (unconfirmed)
Oda, Tetsuro
Sasaki, Toshiharu
Zhang, Cherri
Solomon Maninang, John
Yamaguchi, Takayuki
著者名の別形: 板尾, 健司
小俣, 文弥
西川, 佳孝
佐々木, 俊治
山口, 崇幸
キーワード: foot-and-mouth disease
depopulation
infectious disease modelling
threshold phenomena
epidemiology of domestic animals
発行日: 2019
出版者: American Institute of Mathematical Sciences (AIMS)
誌名: Mathematical Biosciences and Engineering
巻: 16
号: 5
開始ページ: 5931
終了ページ: 5946
抄録: Depopulation is one of the important interventions for the outbreak of animal diseases. Simulation models using actual case scenarios conclude that early depopulation is the most efficient in preventing the spread of foot-and-mouth disease (FMD). However, the long delay in its initiation was often seen in the actual cases and the theoretical analyses of FMD epidemiology with depopulation needs further elaboration. Here, we investigated the qualitative features of epidemic models when depopulation at a fixed capacity was delayed. We built a simple deterministic model for FMD based on state-transition, the SEIIR model whose unit is a single farm. The model settings and parameters were determined using the data from the 2010 epidemic in Miyazaki, Japan. By numerical calculation, we showed the existence of the threshold phenomenon with respect to delays in the initiation of depopulation and if the initiation of full-fledged depopulation surpasses the certain critical timing, the final size of the epidemic rapidly increases leading to a “catastrophic situation”. We also revealed the mechanism of the threshold phenomenon from the relationship between the depopulation capacity and the increasing rate of infection. Although it can be delayed with lower transmission coefficients, the threshold phenomenon still exists. Thus, the existence of the critical timing for depopulation appears to be a universal feature of FMD epidemiology when depopulation is used as the main treatment for disease control.
著作権等: © 2019 the Author(s), licensee AIMS Press. This is an open access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution Licese (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0)
URI: http://hdl.handle.net/2433/250771
DOI(出版社版): 10.3934/mbe.2019297
PubMed ID: 31499746
出現コレクション:学術雑誌掲載論文等

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