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Title: Tsunami evacuation simulation considering road blockage by collapsed buildings evaluated from predicted strong ground motion
Authors: Ito, Eri
Kawase, Hiroshi
Matsushima, Shinichi  kyouindb  KAKEN_id  orcid (unconfirmed)
Hatayama, Michinori
Author's alias: 伊藤, 恵理
川瀬, 博
松島, 信一
畑山, 満則
Keywords: Strong motion estimation
Earthquake-resistant building
Building damage
Tsunami evacuation
Agent-based simulation
Evacuation planning
Issue Date: Apr-2020
Publisher: Springer Nature
Journal title: Natural Hazards
Volume: 101
Issue: 3
Start page: 959
End page: 980
Abstract: Tsunami evacuation simulations are often used to determine necessary countermeasures that will reduce human loss effectively after earthquakes and subsequent tsunamis. However, so far there has been no simulation for the estimated building damage using up-to-date knowledge of seismic engineering. In this study, in order to clarify the effect of building damage on a tsunami evacuation, we first predicted building damage based on the nonlinear response analysis for a realistic strong ground motion and then simulated a tsunami evacuation considering road blockage due to the collapsed buildings. We used one district in Tanabe City in Wakayama Prefecture in Japan where we expect to have a 12 m of tsunami height after an earthquake along the Nankai Trough plate boundary. We found that the prepared capacity of evacuation sites is not enough to let everyone evacuate and that the number of survivors increases by 3–4% if all of the buildings and houses are seismically reinforced. Considering this, plus 1% of expected casualties inside the collapsed houses, it appears to be not as efficient to reinforce buildings and houses to prevent human loss in comparison with increasing the capacity of tsunami evacuation sites in the target district. However, the damage to building and houses will cause a lot of side effects which are not considered here, but will prolong the evacuation time. Thus, we concluded that we need to reinforce the buildings and houses as well as consider the appropriate placement, number, and capacity of the evacuation sites.
Rights: © The Author(s) 2020. This article is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License, which permits use, sharing, adaptation, distribution and reproduction in any medium or format, as long as you give appropriate credit to the original author(s) and the source, provide a link to the Creative Commons licence, and indicate if changes were made. The images or other third party material in this article are included in the article's Creative Commons licence, unless indicated otherwise in a credit line to the material. If material is not included in the article's Creative Commons licence and your intended use is not permitted by statutory regulation or exceeds the permitted use, you will need to obtain permission directly from the copyright holder. To view a copy of this licence, visit
DOI(Published Version): 10.1007/s11069-020-03903-2
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