2012年亀岡豪雨の擬似温暖化実験における線状対流系の将来変化と解像度依存性に関する解析

Abstract

Pseudo global warming experiments (PGW) were conducted with 1000m and 500m horizontal resolution for the 2012 Kameoka extreme rainfall event, which was the type of back-building convection system. As a result, the back-building system was very well represented in both of present and PGW experiments, and the rainfall intensity and total rainfall increased in PGW experiments. This is due to the fact that: in the future, the amount of condensation in cumulonimbus will increase and a convective unstable field will be realized (meso γ ~ β), the back-building structure will be strengthened (meso β), and the convective unstable atmosphere was continuously supplied from the south (meso α). We also showed that the result of 500m resolution can represent the back-building system much better than that of 1000m because 1000m resolution can capture future changes in meso-α, but cannot capture changes smaller than meso-β sufficiently.