コンフリクトマネジメントと均衡状態に関する考察

Abstract

本研究では，従来のシステムズ･アナリシスの手順に新たに分析を加え，さらに意思決定の直前にコンフリクトマネジメントを位置づけた適応的計画方法論として水資源計画を捉える。そして，水資源を取りまく利害主体の対立を数学理論を用いてモデル化し，社会的安定性を数学的安定性を通して眺め，水資源コンフリクト問題を分析するための視座を示す。さらに，インド･バングラデシュのガンジス川水利用コンフリクトを事例に，数学的安定性の社会システムにおける現実的意味と，将来的な合意形成の可能性についての考察を示す。

The future risk of water resources shortage is world widely recognized. Conflicts over ways of water utilization will happen more often in the future as water resources shortage becomes more sever. In this study, firstly, a methodology for water resources planning is proposed, which is considered as an adaptive planning system. Secondly, social conflicts over regulation of water resources are modeled with mathematical theories, such as game theory and differential equations. Thirdly, mathematical stabilities which are focused on in this study are summarized, and social stability is considered in the frame of mathematical satiability. Lastly, mathematical models are applied to the India-Bangladesh conflict over the regulation of the Ganges, and the possibility of conflict management is analyzed.