Incidence and associated factors of sudden unexpected death in advanced cancer patients: A multicenter prospective cohort study

Abstract

[Purpose] A sudden unexpected death has significant negative impacts on patients, family caregivers, and medical staff in hospice/palliative care. This study aimed to clarify the incidence and associated factors of sudden unexpected death according to four definitions in advanced cancer patients. [Methods] We performed a prospective cohort study in 23 inpatient hospices/palliative care units in Japan. Advanced cancer patients aged ≥18 years who were admitted to inpatient hospices/palliative care units were included. The incidence and associated factors of sudden unexpected death were evaluated in all enrolled patients according to four definitions: (a) rapid decline death, defined as a sudden death preceded by functional decline over 1–2 days; (b) surprise death, defined if the primary responsible palliative care physician answered “yes” to the question, “Were you surprised by the timing of the death?”; (c) unexpected death, defined as a death that occurred earlier than the physicians had anticipated; and (d) performance status (PS)-defined sudden death, defined as a death that occurred within 1 week of functional status assessment with an Australia-modified Karnofsky PS ≥50. [Results] Among 1896 patients, the incidence of rapid decline death was the highest (30-day cumulative incidence: 16.8%, 95% CI: 14.8–19.0%), followed by surprise death (9.6%, 8.1–11.4%), unexpected death (9.0%, 7.5–10.8%), and PS-defined sudden death (6.4%, 5.2–8.0%). Male sex, liver metastasis, dyspnea, malignant skin lesion, and fluid retention were significantly associated with the occurrence of sudden unexpected death. [Conclusion] Sudden unexpected death is not uncommon even in inpatient hospices/palliative care units, with range of 6.4–16.8% according to the different definitions.