WRF物理アンサンブルを用いた寒冷渦と台風Lionrock(1610)の距離による構造変化の違いについて

Abstract

We investigated the difference in structure change of typhoon Lionrock (2016) depending on the distance from the upper-tropospheric cold low (UCL). 50 members were created using WRF physics ensemble simulation and classified 8 clusters by the dynamic time warping method. The cluster closest and farthest from the UCL were selected and analyzed. In the closest cluster, the structural change began earlier than in the farthest cluster, and a transition to the occluded structure resulted. On the other hand, in the farthest cluster, the tropical cyclone structure was maintained. This was related to that the closer the distance to the UCL, the more susceptible Lionrock is to the inflow of cold air from the UCL into the typhoon, the increase of vertical wind shear and the friction with landfall, and the effects of the circulation of the UCL.