大気海洋3次元温暖化差分を用いた台風Haiyanの擬似温暖化実験

Abstract

Pseudo-global-warming experiments were conducted for typhoon Haiyan using the 3-dimensional future changes of atmosphere and ocean estimated by CMIP5. The ocean future change in CMIP5 under RCP 8.5 showed that water temperature in the surface mixed layer increases of 2.6-2.9℃, with little change in the current velocity. The series of experiments were conducted using the coupled atmosphere-ocean-wave model COAWST, and the typhoon in the historical climate reproduced the Best Track well. The central pressure of typhoons in the future climate developed about 844 hPa and the maximum wind speed increased about 12 m/s at the time of fully development, compared to the typhoon in the historical climate.