台風経路アンサンブルシミュレーションを用いた日本の沿岸における高波リスクの算出

Abstract

The maximum waves caused by Typhoons Vera (1959) and Trami (2018) were examined using a JMA wave model, and by simulations based on a meteorological model. The typhoon track ensemble simulation demonstrated that the maximum wave was dependent on perturbation of the typhoon track along the entire coast of the Japanese islands. Although these values may differ for other typhoons and sampling points, it is important to estimate the maximum waves and worst-case courses at all coastal areas because this will provide important information enabling effective disaster prevention and risk management.