Estimating divergent forest carbon stocks and sinks via a knife set approach

Abstract

Forest carbon stocks and sinks (CSSs) have been widely estimated using climate classification tables and linear regression (LR) models with common independent variables (IVs) such as the average diameter at breast height (DBH) of stems and root shoot ratio. However, this approach is relatively ineffective when the explanatory power of IVs is lower than that of unobservable variables. Various environmental and anthropogenic factors affect target variables that cause the correlation between them to be chaotic. Here, we designed a knife set (KS) approach combining LR models and the wandering through random forests (WTF) algorithm and applied it in a specific case of Phyllostachys edulis (Carrière) J. Houz. (P. edulis) forests, which have an irregular relationship between their belowground carbon (BGC) stocks and average DBH. We then validated the KS approach performed by cluster computing to estimate the aboveground carbon (AGC) and BGC stocks and the total net primary production (TNPP). The estimated CSSs were compared to the benchmark of the methodology that applied Tier 1 in the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Guidelines for National Greenhouse Gas Inventories via 10-fold cross validation, and the KS approach significantly increased precision and accuracy of estimations. Our approach provides general insights to accurately estimate forest CSSs relying on evidence-based field data, even if some target variables are divergent in specific forest types. We also pointed out the reason why current fancy models containing machine learning (ML) or deep learning algorithms are not effective in predicting the target variables of certain chaotic systems is perhaps that the total explanatory power of observable variables is less than that of the total unobservable variables. Quantifying unobservable variables into observable variables is a linchpin of future works related to chaotic system estimation.