Alternative, but expensive, energy transition scenario featuring carbon capture and utilization can preserve existing energy demand technologies

Abstract

To reach net-zero carbon emissions, most climate change mitigation scenarios model a rapid transition from hydrocarbon-based energy to renewables, wide-scale electrification, and offsets to mitigate residual emissions. This requires phasing out existing hydrocarbon infrastructure and adjustments to electrification. Carbon capture and utilization (CCU) to produce synthetic fuels could be an alternative way to reach net zero while maintaining some existing energy infrastructure and minimizing the societal transition required, yet such scenarios remain unexamined. Here, we analyzed a CCU-based net-zero emissions scenario using a global energy system model. We find that synthetic fuel could meet 30% of energy demand by 2050, resulting in maintaining some existing technologies in energy demand sectors. Meanwhile, this scenario requires rapid upscaling of non-biomass renewables and direct air capture. The CCU-based scenario could be an alternative pathway; however, it involves multiple challenges related to technological feasibility and increased mitigation costs relative to net-zero scenarios using renewables, bioenergy, and carbon dioxide removal.