|Isolation may select for earlier and higher peak viral load but shorter duration in SARS-CoV-2 evolution
Kim, Kwang Su
Komorizono, Ryo https://orcid.org/0000-0002-7610-7985 (unconfirmed)
Ramirez Torres, Lucia
Jeong, Yong Dam
Hart, William S.
Thompson, Robin N.
|During the COVID-19 pandemic, human behavior change as a result of nonpharmaceutical interventions such as isolation may have induced directional selection for viral evolution. By combining previously published empirical clinical data analysis and multi-level mathematical modeling, we find that the SARS-CoV-2 variants selected for as the virus evolved from the pre-Alpha to the Delta variant had earlier and higher peak in viral load dynamics but a shorter duration of infection. Selection for increased transmissibility shapes the viral load dynamics, and the isolation measure is likely to be a driver of these evolutionary transitions. In addition, we show that a decreased incubation period and an increased proportion of asymptomatic infection are also positively selected for as SARS-CoV-2 mutated to adapt to human behavior (i.e., Omicron variants). The quantitative information and predictions we present here can guide future responses in the potential arms race between pandemic interventions and viral evolution.
|AI技術で新型コロナウイルスの進化メカニズムを分析 --ウイルスの進化予測を踏まえた感染症対策の第一歩--. 京都大学プレスリリース. 2023-11-22.
Articles: Isolation may select for earlier and higher peak viral load but shorter duration in SARS-CoV-2 evolution. 京都大学プレスリリース. 2023-11-22.
|© The Author(s) 2023
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