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Title: Isolation may select for earlier and higher peak viral load but shorter duration in SARS-CoV-2 evolution
Authors: Sunagawa, Junya
Park, Hyeongki
Kim, Kwang Su
Komorizono, Ryo  kyouindb  KAKEN_id  orcid (unconfirmed)
Choi, Sooyoun
Ramirez Torres, Lucia
Woo, Joohyeon
Jeong, Yong Dam
Hart, William S.
Thompson, Robin N.
Aihara, Kazuyuki
Iwami, Shingo
Yamaguchi, Ryo
Author's alias: 砂川, 純也
パク, ヒョンギ
小森園, 亮
合原, 一幸
岩見, 真吾
山口, 諒
Keywords: Evolutionary ecology
Population dynamics
Viral infection
Issue Date: 21-Nov-2023
Publisher: Springer Nature
Journal title: Nature Communications
Volume: 14
Thesis number: 7395
Abstract: During the COVID-19 pandemic, human behavior change as a result of nonpharmaceutical interventions such as isolation may have induced directional selection for viral evolution. By combining previously published empirical clinical data analysis and multi-level mathematical modeling, we find that the SARS-CoV-2 variants selected for as the virus evolved from the pre-Alpha to the Delta variant had earlier and higher peak in viral load dynamics but a shorter duration of infection. Selection for increased transmissibility shapes the viral load dynamics, and the isolation measure is likely to be a driver of these evolutionary transitions. In addition, we show that a decreased incubation period and an increased proportion of asymptomatic infection are also positively selected for as SARS-CoV-2 mutated to adapt to human behavior (i.e., Omicron variants). The quantitative information and predictions we present here can guide future responses in the potential arms race between pandemic interventions and viral evolution.
Description: AI技術で新型コロナウイルスの進化メカニズムを分析 --ウイルスの進化予測を踏まえた感染症対策の第一歩--. 京都大学プレスリリース. 2023-11-22.
Articles: Isolation may select for earlier and higher peak viral load but shorter duration in SARS-CoV-2 evolution. 京都大学プレスリリース. 2023-11-22.
Rights: © The Author(s) 2023
This article is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License, which permits use, sharing, adaptation, distribution and reproduction in any medium or format, as long as you give appropriate credit to the original author(s) and the source, provide a link to the Creative Commons licence, and indicate if changes were made. The images or other third party material in this article are included in the article’s Creative Commons licence, unless indicated otherwise in a credit line to the material. If material is not included in the article’s Creative Commons licence and your intended use is not permitted by statutory regulation or exceeds the permitted use, you will need to obtain permission directly from the copyright holder.
DOI(Published Version): 10.1038/s41467-023-43043-2
PubMed ID: 37989736
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