Quantitative strong motion simulations at three locations in downtown Mashiki during the 2016 Kumamoto Earthquake (Mw 7.0) based on the nonlinear ground response analyses with soil liquefaction

Abstract

The mainshock of the 2016 Kumamoto Earthquake (Mw 7.0) caused extensive damage to buildings in downtown Mashiki, Kumamoto Prefecture, Japan. The heavy building damage in the area was associated with both strong ground motion and building response characteristics. Fortunately, there were two strong motion stations in the area and the observed records during the mainshock were distributed, showing peak ground velocities exceeding 100 cm/s on the surface. The level of shaking would be sufficient to make soft surface sediments nonlinear. To reproduce observed ground motions quantitatively, one-dimensional nonlinear effective-stress time-history analyses were conducted at three locations in downtown Mashiki. The input wave was employed as either the observed underground wave or simulated outcrop input motion based on the diffuse field theory. The main purpose of the study was twofold: to investigate the proper soil constitutive relationship and its nonlinear parameters based on the limited amount of in situ information, and to validate the method of input motion evaluation at the seismological bedrock level based on diffuse field theory. The nonlinear time history analyses using the on-site boring survey and the outcrop wave based on diffuse field theory showed that the waveform of the mainshock observed on the ground surface was explained with sufficient accuracy. In addition, the results of the effective stress analysis indicated that soil liquefaction might have occurred in the area with thick surface layers along the Akitsu River where the water table was considered to be quite shallow.