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dc.contributor.author | Nishino, Tomoaki | en |
dc.contributor.alternative | 西野, 智研 | ja |
dc.date.accessioned | 2024-01-05T02:13:00Z | - |
dc.date.available | 2024-01-05T02:13:00Z | - |
dc.date.issued | 2023-04 | - |
dc.identifier.uri | http://hdl.handle.net/2433/286532 | - |
dc.description.abstract | A probabilistic methodology is presented for assessing cascading multi-hazard risk for ground shaking and post-earthquake fires at a regional scale. The proposed methodology focuses on direct economic losses to buildings caused by the combined effect of ground shaking and post-earthquake fires and evaluates the exceedance probability of the regional shaking–fire losses in a predefined future time period by comprehensively considering the effects of various uncertain factors on the losses via Monte Carlo simulations. Probabilistic seismic risk assessments are extended by integrating post-earthquake fire models with seismic activity models, ground motion prediction equations, and seismic fragility functions. The fire models include post-earthquake ignition models, a weather model, a physics-based urban fire spread model, and a fire brigade response model. This integrated modeling enables the incorporation of the following uncertain factors with causal relationships into the assessments: earthquake occurrence, ground motion intensity distribution, damage to buildings resulting from ground shaking, post-earthquake ignition occurrence and occupant firefighting, weather condition, fire brigade response time including time to detection, and damage to buildings resulting from post-earthquake urban fire spread. To demonstrate the methodology, a realistic case study is conducted for a historical urban area with closely spaced wooden buildings in Kyoto, Japan, focusing on possible large earthquakes along major active faults. Contrary to conventional single-hazard approaches, the results highlight the impact of multi-hazard consideration on risk assessments. This indicates that the methodology can be a useful tool for more appropriately understanding earthquake risk and promoting risk-informed decision-making in urban communities for risk reduction. | en |
dc.language.iso | eng | - |
dc.publisher | Springer Nature | en |
dc.rights | © The Author(s) 2023 | en |
dc.rights | This article is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License, which permits use, sharing, adaptation, distribution and reproduction in any medium or format, as long as you give appropriate credit to the original author(s) and the source, provide a link to the Creative Commons licence, and indicate if changes were made. The images or other third party material in this article are included in the article's Creative Commons licence, unless indicated otherwise in a credit line to the material. If material is not included in the article's Creative Commons licence and your intended use is not permitted by statutory regulation or exceeds the permitted use, you will need to obtain permission directly from the copyright holder. | en |
dc.rights.uri | http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/ | - |
dc.subject | Multi-hazard risk assessment | en |
dc.subject | Seismic damage | en |
dc.subject | Fire following earthquake | en |
dc.subject | Urban fire spread | en |
dc.subject | Probabilistic loss estimation | en |
dc.subject | Epistemic uncertainty | en |
dc.title | Probabilistic urban cascading multi-hazard risk assessment methodology for ground shaking and post-earthquake fires | en |
dc.type | journal article | - |
dc.type.niitype | Journal Article | - |
dc.identifier.jtitle | Natural Hazards | en |
dc.identifier.volume | 116 | - |
dc.identifier.issue | 3 | - |
dc.identifier.spage | 3165 | - |
dc.identifier.epage | 3200 | - |
dc.relation.doi | 10.1007/s11069-022-05802-0 | - |
dc.textversion | publisher | - |
dcterms.accessRights | open access | - |
dc.identifier.pissn | 0921-030X | - |
dc.identifier.eissn | 1573-0840 | - |
出現コレクション: | 学術雑誌掲載論文等 |
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