A long-term projection for the Chinese long-term plan for 2010 : research based on the Kyoto Univ. Pacific Rim model

Abstract

For the sake of the Chinese long-term plan for 2010, this paper offers a long-term projection by using a post-war Asian Pacific model termed 'KYPAC-4'. This model has been reconstructed through coresearch financed by the Chinese Educational Committee and the Japan Society for the Promotion of Science, and its estimated average growth rate of GDP for the plan is 19.2% in current yuan, or 19.6% in current dollars. Although this growth figure is both unexpectedly high and higher than other countries, there are some basic reasons to support this figure. This paper considers the realism of this figure and other key indicators, especially when comparing with our projections to those of other Asian Pacific countries.