Theoretical and empirical analysis of the influences of risks over time and with age on medical expenditures : evidence from the Japanese one-person households

Abstract

This paper theoretically and empirically analyzes the relationship between medical expenditures and risk. First, the influences of two risk parameters on medical expenditures are theoretically investigated. The decrease in the time risk, which is interpreted to represent social risks such as medical technology and public health, reduces the expenditure on medical care. The increase in the age risk, which is interpreted to represent individual risks such as aging, increases the expenditure on medical care. Second, the medical expenditures of Japanese one-person households from 1969 to 1994 are estimated. The influences of two risk parameters on the medical expenditures are confirmed as expected, and the gender distinction and the institutional change are also important.