ヨドヨノ大統領と民主化「第二フェーズ」:政治改革・紛争後復興・首長選挙を中心に(<特集>インドネシア政治への新たな視座)

Abstract

The birth of the Yudhoyono presidency in October 2004 was a significant moment in Indonesia's political history. As the first national leader directly elected by popular voting, Yudhoyono has unprecedented political legitimacy and has been expected to implement various programs for democratic consolidation. What is the nature of this presidency and what are the major political challenges for his leadership? This essay attempts to clarify these issues by examining political developments during the last two years. It illustrates how the Yudhoyono administration differs in two respects from the three previous governments led by Habibie, Megawati, and Wahid: first, in the popular mandate given to Yudhoyono as the winner of direct presidential elections; and second, in the power shift in the parliament since 1999 which has ended the virtual dominance of Megawati's PDI-P party. Given these characteristics, the political environment of Yudhoyono's administration favors a breakthrough in democratic consolidation, and this essay argues that Yudhoyono's expected role is to transform the status of democracy from the first to the second phase. Several problems that emerged in the first phase of democratic change, such as widening corruption, ineffective civilian control of the military, and the rise of bossism in local politics, were largely byproducts of institutional reforms conducted by previous presidencies in their attempts to eliminate Suharto's authoritarian polity. The historically expected role of a national leader in the age of direct presidential election is to mobilize the political capital generated by his or her popular mandate to remove these byproducts&#8212;which may derail democracy&#8212;and to consolidate the political system free from the legacy of the Suharto era.It is still too early to fully evaluate whether Yudhoyono will achieve this historical role, but this essay tries to assess the mid-term progress (if any) by investigating government performance in three issue-areas, namely political sector reform, post-conflict recovery, and elections of local heads. Despite many good signs of change and breakthrough from the past, a dilemma is increasingly visible between Yudhoyono's popular mandate and the demands of realpolitik compromise, and this may shadow the long-run prospects of second phase agendas.