トルコ共和国における農林水産業の産業構造および生産性への気象変化の影響 : 環境変動の波及効果に関する産業連関モデルを中心として

Abstract

The purpose of this study is to conduct a research on the interrelations among rural industries structure, agricultural productivities and climate changes in Turkey. In this paper the national level Input-Output tables are used. By deriving the several indicators based on the inter-industry transaction tables, the characteristics of rural industry sectors and the interrelations between the rural industry sectors and the other industrial sectors are discussed. Then, the input coefficients of the rural industry sectors are regressed on the climate variables such as temperature, precipitation in Adana and Konya region and the other environmental factors with regional dummy variables. By doing so, it can be discussed how the climate change affects on the productivity of rural industries and inter industry activities in Adana and Konya region in Turkey. The adopted methodologies consist of 3 parts. Those are 1) generation of rural industry based 10 tables in 3 time points (1985, 1990, 1996), 2) industry structure analysis and 3) prediction of input coefficients by the RAS method. The second part contains (a) influence & responsive degree coefficients, (b) inducement coefficients and (c) skyline analysis. The third part contains (a) estimation of R (substitution change coefficient) & S (processing degree change coefficient), (b) prediction of input coefficients, and (c) regression of predicted input coefficients on climate variables Some implications at this stage are as follows. From the estimated influence & responsive degree coefficients, the following points were clarified. (1) Vegetable, fruit, forestry and fisheries sectors are less influential and less responsive to whole economy than average. Among these, only fisheries sector weakened this tendency successively. All other sectors intensified this situation from 1985 to 1990 but reversed to the original similar situation in 1996. (2) Grain sector is less influential and more responsive to whole economy. This tendency was intensified from 1985 to 1990 but reversed to the original weakened situation in 1996. (3) Livestock sector is more influencial and less responsive to whole economy than average, which is closer to the manufacturing sectors. This tendency was weakened from 1985 to 1990 but reversed to the intensified original situation in 1996 From the estimated inducement coefficients, the following points were clarified. (1) inducement coefficient structure has not changed substantially during sample period 1985-1996. (2) Rural industries are less important in terms of production inducement, import inducement and value added inducement coefficients. (3) Among rural industries, grain, fruit and livestock sectors are more important in this order than others in value added terms. (4) As for the production inducement coefficients, livestock sector is bigger than fruit sector but for the value added inducement coefficients, fruit sector is bigger than livestock sector. From the results of Skyline analysis, the following points were clarified. (1) Industrial structure has not changed substantially during sample period 1985-1996. (2) Rural industries are less important and tertiary sector is more increasingly important in terms of production ratio. (3) Among rural industries, grain and livestock sector decreased self sufficiency rate while forestry sector increased. From the results of RAS analysis, the following points were clarified. (1) Rural industries show characteristics of declining sectors in that most of them has substitution change coefficient R<1 and processing degree change coefficient S>1 for latter half period 1990-96. (2) Forestry sector shows both coefficient R and S less than one and moved to the average one. (3) All other rural sectors shifted from region I (R>1 and S>1) to the region II ( R<1 and S>1). From the results of Climate Change effects, the following points were clarified. (1) For grain, fruit, livestock product, forestry and fisheries, temperatures in Konya (+) and Adana (-) affect significantly but differently. (2) For vegetable, climate changes in both area do not affect significantly. (3) Temperature affects most significantly on livestock products, secondly on fruit. Next, forestry, fisheries and grain follow in this order. (4) Precipitations in both areas do not affect any rural industries significantly. (5) For all cases, temperature in Konya affects more significantly than that in Adana.