米の自由化モデルの提示

Abstract

The objective of this paper is to identify the quantitative effects of liberalization of the domestic rice market to the rice economy of Japan. Firstly, an econometric model for that purpose is presented. Secondly, the results of the model estimation are presented and analysed. The model consists of supply side and demand side based on annual time series data. The supply side is a micro-analytic model, and the demand side is an econometric model. The estimated effects are as follows: When the domestic rice market is liberalized the producers' price of rice per 60 kg of brown rice decreases to about 15, 000 yen. But rice production does not decrease much, and remains at around ten million tons of brown rice. The income from rice production declines to about 810 billion yen which is about 45% of the present amount. It is estimated that the number of rice producing farms decreases to about 2.85 million which is 78% of the present level.