大規模肉牛農家の経営財務の予測

Abstract

We forecast that many Japanese beef farms will be damaged by liberalization of Japanese beef markets. The objective of this paper is to present a forecasting method of beef farms' financial management, and actually apply this method to four beef farms which belong to an agricultural co-operative in Ehime prefecture. A recursive linear programming was used this method The features of this method are as follows: (1) Beef farms' financial flow which is brought about by supplying the money of A agricultural to co-operative is incorporated in a programming models as behavioral constraints. (2) The objective function is surplus of beef farm household economy in cash basis. (3) In this model, the optimum combination of Japanese beef cattle and fatting dairy breed bulls is decided. If we give the balance of the short-term liability and the quick asset at the head of a vcar as behavioral constrains to this model, we can get the balance of those al the end of a year as the optimum solution, and likewise the balance of those at the end of a year becomes the balance of those at the head of the next year, and automatically the balance of those at the head of the next year becomes behavioral constraints for the next year's forecasting.