青果物産地の生産販売計画のための需給動向分析

Abstract

The author develops a new index to determine trends of demand and supply of vegetables and fruits. This index is calculated only from information about increases and decreases of demand and supply and volatilities of price. This enables us to distill confidential information of the trend from the time series data which have very limited number of observations. So the index has extremely broad applications. Usual spread sheet softwares, such as LOTUS, EXCELL, can implement the index. The index is put into practice in the Tokyo Central Wholesale Market. Planners of production centers can use the index to modify the production and sales strategy and to enlarge their production mixes by adding a new profitable commodity.