北海道の水田賃貸借の制度的・経済的・技術的規程要因の計量分析

Abstract

In this paper, a basic Nerlovian adaptive adjustment model in order to explain disequiliblium adjustment processes in the rented paddy field area and rent is bulit, which is capable of handling illegal renting indirectly, and the model is applied to the case of Hokkaido for the periods of 1960-75 and 1976-90 in order to identify quantitatively the adjustment processes and the effects of the institutuional, economic and technological factors to the processes. The estimation results were statistically and economically successful. The major points found in this paper are as follows: 1. The adjustment processes in the Hokkaido paddy field tenancy market were found to be much faster than the processes in the Mainland Japan. 2. It was found that the Hokkaido paddy field tenancy market had changed from demand surplus situation during 1960-75 to supply surplus situation during 1976-90. 3. The very fast increase in the paddy field conversion area to other crops from 1974 caused paddy field renting area and rent to increse. An increase of 1000ha/yaer in the conversion area incersed renting area by 85ha and rent by 74yen, thus decreased illegal renting area. 4. The increase of the real governmnet purchase price of rice by 1000yen increased the real rent by 1960yen during 1976-90 and by 3364yen during 1960-75.