北海道の水田有償所有権移転を規定する諸要因の計量分析

Abstract

In this paper, the Nerlovian adaptive adjustment model is applied to the case of Hokkaido for the periods of 1961-81 and 1973-92 in order to explain the disequiliblium adjustment processes in paddy fields' transactions to a long run equilibrium among rice farmers. In the former period the situation of excessive demand for paddy fields and in the later period execcive supply situation are assumed, and the institutional and economic factors in the adjustment processes are quantitatively sought. The estimation results were statistically and economically successful. The major points found in this paper are as follows: 1. The estimation results confirmed that the Hokkaido paddy fields transaction market had changed from demand surplus situation during 1961-81 to supply surplus situation during 1973-92. 2. The paddy fields' supplying farmers determine their amount of paddy fields to sell comparing the opportunity interest income from the revenue of the paddy fields' sales and the market rent to the paddy fields, especially during the demand surplus period. 3. The adjustment speed in paddy fields' transaction in Hokkaido increased by about 200% from the demand surplus period to the supply surplus period.