伝統的米輸出国の農業生産性を規定する諸要因と緑の革命 : タイ国における米生産の生産関数による分析を中心として

Abstract

First, factors determining the productivity of rice in Thailand are analyzed estimating the aggregate production function of rice. Thailand is selected as a representative of the countries which traditionally exported rice most of which was produced in big deltas. Second, the economic and policy implications of the results of the above production function analysis are discussed. In pursuing the second objective, a special attention is paid to the green revolution in rice which has taken place in some of the traditionally rice importing Asian countries. From the production function analysis, it is found that the irrigation projects have been the most important factor contributing to the fast growth of the productivity and of the total paddy production for the sixties, that this fast growth is facilitated by the growing inputs of the tractors and fertilizers, and that the three natural environmental variables explain to some extent the changes in the total paddy production. Since the irrigation projects are not appropriate policy to cope with the short-run shortage or surplus problems of rice, it is suggested that the rice premium policy may be a proper policy for these short-run problem referring to the another study by the author and considering the present condition of the administrative organ of Thailand. Because the fast growth of paddy production and productivity for Thailand took place without using the high-yielding rice varieties, it is also suggested that the fast growth may be called the green revolution of "Thai pattern" in rice and that the same change probably can take place in Burma or Vietnam who has been traditionally rice exporting countries and where considerable amounts of rice are produced in their big deltas.