東南アジア輸出成長の諸要因 : 需要サイドからの計量分析(1967-1976年)(<特集>経済特集 : 貿易・直接投資と経済発展)

Abstract

Factors of export growth are analyzed quantitatively from the demand side for the region of Southeast Asia covering Indonesia, Malaysia, the Philippines, Singapore, Thailand, Hong Kong, and Korea. The study depends exclusively on the trade matrix of ESCAP constructed in both current and constant prices for the period 1967-1976. A constant-market-shares analysis, supplemented by import functions, constitutes the analytical framework of the study. This is a demand approach, and its validity is theoretically investigated from the viewpoint of supply-demand equilibrium analysis. The seven countries showed in general a favorable export performance for the period of 1967-1976. It is particularly remarkable that all seven countries were able to strengthen their export competitiveness at the micro level, increasing their market shares on the average for individual commodities in individual markets. This micro-level competitiveness was strengthened slightly by favorable market compositions, but weakened considerably by unfavorable commodity compositions, resulting in moderated export competitiveness at the overall macro level. The Philippines, which experienced an overall share decrease, is a weak example of the "aggregation paradox." The share increases at the micro level were caused mainly by the scale effect, which reflects non-price competitiveness, rather than by the price effect, which reflects price competitiveness.