フィリピンにおける都市化の将来予測(<特集>小林和正教授退官記念号 : 東南アジアの人口)

Abstract

This paper outlines the application of the Markov chain model to the Philippines. This model for projecting the urban and rural population in a developing nation employs data of migratory flows between urban and rural areas derived from national population censuses or other sources. For the Philippines the future trends of urbanization are assessed on the basis of the relative distribution of population which would result if the pattern of internal migration for 1965-70 continued. For comparison, the projected level of urbanization is also evaluated by the urban-rural growth difference (URGD) method using a kind of Logistic model. The Markov chain model predicts that the level of urbanization, namely, the proportion of urban population in the national population, will rise from the 32.9 percent of 1970 to 38.3 percent in 2000, and will attain equilibrium at 52.5 percent, below the current level in Western societies. Projections of the proportion of the national population in the Manila Metropolitan Area by the same method indicate that the increase in urbanization will largely be accounted for by an increase in the proportion of the population in this area, in which the proportion of the population in the central district, the City of Manila, will decrease while that in the suburban districts will increase greatly. The projections made by the URGD method were somewhat higher than those by the Markov chain model, which may be true in general for the developing nations, where the current level of urbanization is considerably low.