<資料・研究ノート>インドネシアにおける新計量モデルの開発

Abstract

In this paper, a macro econometric model MD83V1 is introduced, which is a revised version of Core Model-81. The national income statistics in Indonesia was radically reformed and improved in 1985 : They are now consistent with the Input-Output Tables; the base year was changed from 1973 in the old statistics to 1983; private consumption, which was a discrepancy in the old definition, is calculated independently in the new definition, etc. Our model has also been improved in many ways : Imports and exports including oil and gas are analyzed as precisely as possible, wage is introduced as a variable in the price sector, a small sector of balance of payments is added to calculate endogenously balances on current account and basic transactions, etc. Therefore, MD83V1 may be a new model rather than a simple revision of Core Model-81. However, the new model still has various defects : Unexpected fluctuations of private investment affect variously the model as a whole, wage data are not reliable, the effect of the recent tax reform is not reflected in the model, and others. Despite these defects, the model seems to be useful for medium-term projection.