インドネシアにおける逆オイル・ショックと構造調整政策 : CGEモデルに基づく1980年と1985年の比較静学分析

Abstract

The purpose of this paper is to present a static CGE (Computable General Equilibrium) model of Indonesia constructed for the years 1980 and 1985, and to apply the model to the analysis of comparative statics by which the impacts of oil price declines are compared between the two years and the effects of structural adjustment policies are evaluated for the two cases of financial and tax reforms in 1983. The model has two important characteristics. First, it integrates real and financial sectors in a consistent way. Second, it determines the exchange rate endogenously, covering both fixed and flexible exchange rate systems. The model has been applied to the analysis of comparative statics in the case of 10% decline in oil price for both years (1980 and 1985) independently and in comparison with each other. In other words, comparisons of comparative statics have been attempted based on the model. A notable outcome of the comparisons is the fact that negative impacts of the 10% oil price decline are appreciably smaller in 1985 than in 1980. This means that structural changes or structural adjustments must have occurred in the Indonesian economy between the two years to mitigate the negative effects of the 'reverse oil shock' which began in March 1983. Actually, two major policy reforms were introduced in 1983 to cope with the reverse oil shock, aiming at a full mobilization of domestic resources. One was financial reform, the other tax reform. Comparative statics based on the model clearly indicate that the two policy reforms, especially the financial reform, contributed significantly to the mitigation of negative effects caused by the reverse oil shock.