オーストラリアにおける食料農業政策の展開と大旱魃後の穀物需給の動向

Abstract

As for the relation between economic development and resources exports, two concepts have been argued. One is the "Staple Theory" and the other is the "Dutch disease". The former is the theory that the booming of resources exports is an engine for economic development. The latter is the proposition that the booming of resources exports causes appreciation of currency which tends to deteriorate trade balances by facilitating imports and restricting export. In addition to this, although the resources sectors such as mining and rural industries have only small potential for job opportunities creation, wage increase in this sector tends to cause general wage increase and deteriorate international competitiveness of whole economy. In the case of the Australian economic development process through resource sector expansion, it can be said that the "Staple Theory" had been the case for the period before UK joined the EC, when Australia enjoyed the beneficial market situation provided by UK. However, the "Dutch disease" has also been the case for the period after UK joined the EC when Australia suffered from long term economic recession due to the loss of the UK beneficial market. Historically, the agricultural policy in Australia has been characterized by stabilization measures rather than subsidizing or supporting measures. Each of the farm commodities has shown different growth patterns, depending on the degree of labor intensity, which is a critically significant factor in population scarce Australia. Grape or oilseed have grown sharply while pork, egg and sheep have been stagnated, reflecting the world market situation. The dairy sector has been unique in the fact that the farm number decreased but the output increased sharply. The grain sector has shown a growth pattern, close 10 the average of all farm sectors. In the last two years, continuous unprecedented droughts damaged Australian farm sectors seriously. In this paper, the effects of these severe droughts on the grain sectors in Australia are discussed. Also, it is pointed out that under these situations, Australian policy attitudes have been left behind by worldwide trends in three aspects such as introduction of GMO products, Biofuel projects and FTA negotiations. The recovery prospects from drought damage on the grain industries depend heavily on the prompt policy action towards reasonable direction following the world tendencies.