Can economic-psychological parameters predict successful smoking cessation?

Abstract

This paper conducts a five-month follow-up survey of 608 Japanese adults who just started smoking cessation, and measures economic-psychological parameters such as the time preference rate and risk aversion coefficient using a conjoint analysis. We reach two main conclusions. First, cessation successes are more risk-averse than cessation failures, both at the starting and finishing points of the survey. Furthermore, between the two points, the time preference rates decrease for cessation successes, while the values increase for cessation failures. Second, we find that along with individual characteristics, economic-psychological parameters are important predictors of successful cessation. The time preference rate has a larger impact on cessation than the risk aversion coefficient.