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ファイル | 記述 | サイズ | フォーマット | |
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a11b0p11.pdf | 651.31 kB | Adobe PDF | 見る/開く |
タイトル: | 貯水地をもつ河川の渇水確率について |
その他のタイトル: | ON THE PROBABILITY OF WATER SHORTAGE IN A RIVER SYSTEM WITH A RESERVOIR |
著者: | 長尾, 正志 |
著者名の別形: | NAGAO, Masashi |
発行日: | 1-Mar-1968 |
出版者: | 京都大学防災研究所 |
誌名: | 京都大学防災研究所年報. B |
巻: | 11 |
号: | B |
開始ページ: | 115 |
終了ページ: | 129 |
抄録: | This study aims to clarify the possibility of water shortage by means of the theore-tical application of the stochastic inventory model when the water-utilization is carriedon through a reservoir.Firstly, at the time of adopting this model, inflows should be transformed into randomvariables under consideration of their seasonal variation. The seasonal randomization isdone by the prediction theory due to the linear combination of past data. Then, thestationary distribution of water stored is deduced by using of the theory of the Markov-chain of the stored water. The deduction is done in the following two cases; the onecontains fixed capacity of reservoir and demanded release of water, the other the seasonalvariation of capacity of reservoir and demanded release.Next, on the basis of this stationary distribution, the stochastic treatment to estimatethe probability of water shortage at any time and to make clear the relation betweenthe probability and the duration time is developed, and the necessary mathematicalexpressions are shown. Finally, a computational procedure applyin~ this theory to theYanagase Multi-purpose Reservoir is shown and the availability of this approach isclarified. |
URI: | http://hdl.handle.net/2433/69647 |
関連リンク: | http://www.dpri.kyoto-u.ac.jp/nenpo/nenpo.html |
出現コレクション: | No.11 B |
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