日雨量系列の模擬発生と内水排除計画への適用 ―山科川下流部の内水(4)―

Abstract

A study was made of possibility of representing the daily rainfall sequence observedat a point by a simple stochastic model using a digital computer, and of effectiveness ofapplying the generated sequence by the' model to optimal design of drainage pump capacity.In order to simplify the model, the daily amount of evaporation was regarded asnegative rainfall depth. After some stochastic considerations on actual data observed atKyoto, the simple normal Markov model was applied to the sequence in summer and theindependence model to the others. The generated data were good in the stochastic sense.Hydrographs of water level in the inundation area of lower reaches of the YamashinaRiver were synthesized using the generated daily rainfall sequence for 100 years, andusing some stochastic techniques. The annual benefits and drainage costs were calculatedunder some hypothetical pump capacities, and a design criterion for optimum drainagesystem was discussed.