洪水の時・空間生起確率算定法とその治水計画への適用

Abstract

This paper proposes an approach to the integration or combination of hydrology and waterresource systems. Firstly, the flood probabilities in time and space among the sub-basins areestimated through the stochastic model of hourly rainfall and the runoff system model. Se-condly, their probabilities are transformed into ones at multi-defence points in the river basinbased on the flood routing model including the effect of dam control and overflow at the pointbeing lack of river capacity and the shift-operation on non-homogeneous finite state markov chain.Lastly, the optimization problem including the objective function and the above flood probabilityas stochastic constraint are formed. And as its optimization technique the chance constraintmethod are introduced and the scale, location and operational rule of flood control facilities aredecided.