水系一貫した治水計画の策定に関する研究

Abstract

The aim of this study is to establish the optimal flood control system accounted for by thecomprehensive criteria in the whole river basin. Especially, we examine the effets of flood controlprojects in multi-basin and multi-estimate points on the basis of the flood inundation probability intime and space.We define the planning object of flood control projects as the minimization problem of construc-tion cost among all alternatives satisfying the safty ratio for the flood inundation. Firstly, thesuperior alternatives on the simple basin model are extracted by using the random search method.Secondly, the optimal system on the exact basin model is decided by application of the simulationmethod for them. Then, the optimal construction order of final system is decided by DynamicProgramming with the criteria that the expectation of the inundation damage under constructionis minimum.So, we call the above steps I) Screening model, ii) Simulation model, and iii) Sequential modelin flood control planning respectively.