レーダー雨量計による短時間降雨予測の検討

Abstract

The authors propose a short-term rainfall prediction method using only rainfall data obtainedby a radar raingauge.The model employed in this study is∂z/∂t + U(x, y)∂z/∂x + V(x, y)∂z/∂y=A(x, y)z + B (x, y)where t is time, x, y are space coordinates, and z is rainfall intensity. U(x, y), V(x, y), A(x, y), B(x, y) are estimated by the weighted regression analysis by the use of the past rainfall data.For eight predicted cases, leadtime of which is within three hours, predicted rainfalldistributions show good agreement with observed rainfall distributions.