面積雨量の推算値の信頼性に関する研究-長崎豪雨における雨量の空間的変動性と可能誤差の特性-

Abstract

Seeking for adequate methodology to estimate a rough range of probable errors in arealrainfall estimation, examinations about the following items were tried on a record-breakingrainstorm selected as a start case:I) profiles of areal distribution relief of rainfall intensities averaged in different time scale (10min., 1 hr., 6 hr. and 24 hr.) and the indices of extreme concentricity in time and space.Ii) characteristics of probable errors of hourly areal rainfalls in the six regions which aretrialgle or quadrilateral with rainguage points as their vertices and including one or morepoint for estimation of imaginary true areal rainfalls.Some interesting results to confirm their genrality were obtained, but it is necessary toaccumulate case studies with more systematic and detailed analyses.