工学的基盤における地震動予測モデル

Abstract

Earthquake motion prediction model for moderate and great earthquaks have been proposedon the basis of base rock-ground motion database. Ground motions on rock surface, the shearvelocity of which is about 600-700 m/sec, have been calculated from the ground motions recordedon Japanese alluvial and diluvial sites. 91 components of acceleration time histories on rocksurface level have been arranged, which consist of (I) rock surface-ground motions estimatedfrom the accelerograms recorded on alluvial and diluvial site and (ii) ground motions recorded onrock ground.On the basis of this database, the prediction models for peak ground motions, responsespectra, and nonstationary eartiquake motions (EMP-IB) have been proposed as a function ofmagnitude M and epicentral distance /. Further, the prediction model for great earthquakes(EMP-IIB) has been proposed, which can simulate ground motions as a function of seismicmoment, area and rupture pattern of fault, and rupture velocity.