日本本土に来襲する台風の統計的性質について

Abstract

For the forty-nine moderate and severe typhoons, which landed on the Japanese main is-lands from 1951 to 1984, the Schloemer's type pressure patterns are fitted to the observed sea-levelpressures. At the time of landfall, cumulative probabilities of /p (central pressure depth), rm(radius of the maximum cyclostrophic wind), speed and direction of forward motion are re-presented by a normal distribution in the logarithmic scale. And, the distribution of numberof landed typhoons per year is fitted by the Poisson's distribution. Further, the distributionsof a mean time change rate to a value at the time of landfall is investigated for /p, rm andspeed of forward motion, and the distribution of a mean time change value of direction of for-ward motion is investigated. These investigated results will be applied to a simulation of pres-sure field and track of a typhoon, and the wind speed in a typhoon will be estimated using arelation between the pressure pattern and the wind field.