阪神・淡路大震災-防災研究への取り組み-地震予知-求められる大学の役割-

Abstract

Since the 1995 Hyogoken-nanbu earthquake, the government changed the policy of earthquake prediction to that of earthquake investigation and is intending to extend seismic observation networks over Japan islands and cover the whole areas by a lot of GPS stations to monitor real time crustal movements. In such a new situation, the university has been confronted with reconsideration of the earthquake prediction study which have been developed during the period of past 30 years since 1965. We should recognize the policy established in the Fourth earthquake prediction project in which it was stressed that the mechanism of inland earthquake occurrences and those of precursor appearance should be investigated based on science. In order to develop the scientific earthquake prediction we propose to aim to achieve the middle-Term prediction and to make integrated experiments in the testfield for the earthquake predicition which was once executed 15 years ago at Yamasaki active fault. Particularly some techniques to observe free water in the middle and upper crust should be developed.