台風の確率モデルの作成とそれによる強風のシミュレイション

Abstract

In the previous paper in 1985, we presented the statistical specifications of the pressurepatterns of the typhoons through the analysis of the moderate and severe ones which hadmade landfall on the Japanese main islands during the period 1951-1984. Basing on thesespecifications, in this paper, we synthesized a stochastic typhoon model, and carried outsimulation of typhoons by Monte Carlo technique. Further, a series of simulated typhoonswas applied to the estimation of the design basic wind speeds at Akashi Straits as an ex-ample. A series of simulated annual maximum wind speeds was represented as the doubleexponential distribution, and the expected wind speeds at the site were estimated as 44, 47and 50 m/sec, for the 50, 100 and 200 year return periods respectively.