広域的な治水システムの段階的計画決定プロセスに関する研究

Abstract

The general purpose of this study is to establish the optimum flood control system for thewhole basin consisting of multi-subbasin and multi-reference point, throgh the three planningprocesses such as screening, simulation and sequential models. In this study, the flood inunda-tion probability in the reference points is adopted as the reliability criteria of the flood controlsystem from the viewpoint of risk management.First, in screening model, the flood inundation probabilities are calculated by using shiftoperation as an approximate method, and then experimental planning method is introduced togain the superior alternatives.Second, the final solution on the optimal site and scale planning of the flood control facili-ties is decided by examining the vicinity of the superior alternatives by branch and boundmethod in simulation model.Last, in sequential model, the experimental method, approximate DP and branch andbound methoud are introduced to solve the multi-stage decision process under the constraintof annual budget.