日本南方洋上における台風の確率モデルの作成

Abstract

Based on the statistics of 255 severe and moderate typhoons passing through the domainsurrounded by the latitudes of 23 N and 43 N and the longitudes 123 E and 147 E from 1951 to83, cenral pressure depth, Vp, and velocity of movement of the model typhoon were synthes-ized.In this domain, most of typhoons recurve from northwestward to northeastward.Although the recurving is one of the difficult problems in simulation of a typhoon path, thismodel could simulate properly the representative paths of typhoons including recurving. Thesynthesized translation also agreed approximately with those of the experienced typhoons, but the values of Vp were synthesizcd somewhat deeper. This will be reexamined in thesucceeding research.