洪水氾濫水の動態を考慮した避難システムの評価に関する研究

Abstract

A method to simulate the evacuating actions of the groups of residents linkedwith a simulation of an overland flood flow due to river bank breach is presented.A selection of the shortest way to the refuges is solved by using the Warshall-Floyd method, in which the effect of informations of river bank breach and/or thedepth of water on the way are taken into account. Validity of the simulationmethod is examined at first for a rather simple case under the several differentconditions, I. E., various time lags between the commencement and the bank breach, some topographical conditions of the evacuation route, retardation of walking speeddue to inundation and congestion, etc..Finally, this model is applied to the actual basin (Ogura basin, situatd in thesouth of Kyoto Prefecture), and evacuation in an inundation is simulated for thecase of various breach points under several timings of the issue and propagationspeed of the advice or order to evacuate. In some cases all the residents can safelyarrive at the existing refuges, but in other cases they are trapped by the flood onthe way of evacuation. Thus, by the application of this method, the assessment ofthe evacuation system is possible.