降雨予測を利用した予備放流方式の実用化に関する検討 その1.予備放流方式による洪水調節シミュレータの設計

Abstract

Recent remarkable development of weather forecasting techniques enables us tobetter utilize the existing reservoir system to achieve higher reliability both in watersupply and in flood control. The technical media for aquiring better performance ofreservoirs is an anticipatory release operation, that is: (1) A portion of mandatoryflood control storage is put to the use as water supply storage. (2) Anticipatoryrelease is, by return, allowed for flood control sector to use water saved for watersupply when a flood is expected to come. (3) The water supply sector payespremium and rent for the use of flood control storage, and in return, the floodcontrol sector payes penalty when the initial water supply storage used foranticipatory release is not recovered after a flood.Accuracy of precipitation forecasts plays a key role in determining effectivenessof this method. This paper presents a reservoir operation simulater developed forevaluating the value of forecasting accuracy in terms of reduction in loss of flooddamages and gain in water supply benefits, and to determine the proper volume ofstorage to be put to use for anticipatory release operation.