洪水ハイドログラフの確率予測

Abstract

The on-line rainfall-runoff forecasting method which has been developed by theauthors provides forcast value with a constant lead time, and it cannot giveprobabilistic information about quantities relating the whole hydrograph, such aspeak discharge, the time to peak of discharge, and total runoff volume. In thispaper we developed a new algorithm by which a stochastic prediction of a wholehydrograph can be obtained.Our new algorithm can give various information about the whole hydrographincluding the probability that the time to peak of discharge has passed the currenttime, the probability distribution of the total volume of future discharge, theprobability that flood will surpass the warning water level, and the probabilitydistribution of flood peak time and peak volume.