3次元レーダー情報を用いた降雨生起場の推定と短時間降雨予測手法の開発

Abstract

Quasi-meteorologically and physically based method of short-term rainfallprediction using three-dimensionally scanning radar is proposed. This method is thedevelopment and composition of the two method which we have been developingfrom the view point of water valance. The first one is the method of estimatingthe three-dimensional distribution of the conversion rate from water vapor intoliquid water. We have modified this method so that the distribution of conversionrate can be estimated in the full observation domain of three-dimensionally scanningradar. The second method is calculating rainfall distribution based on theinteraction model between water vapor, instability field and topography. A newmodel is presented in addition to the model presented the previous paper.A prediction method using these two methods gave effective results in terms ofthe prediction of occurring and development of rainfall area which is the phenomenathat has not been predicted by any method based, on extrapolation of the pattern ofrainfall distribution.