中小河川における豪雨出水の実時間危険度予知のための基礎的研究-増水時流量の簡易予測法に関する検討-

Abstract

It is one of the most important matters for real-time countermeasures such asflood-fighting and evacuation to forecast or nowcast a general condition of flood, especially of its rising limb, caused by heavy rainfall in minor river basins, whererunoff is rapid and its observation system doesn't exist or is not so good as majorrivers usually, as soon as possible based on information of rainfall includingforecasted one.From this point of view, a simple and graphic runoff estimation method whichhas two parameters, for the use in the rising period was derived based on theequivalent roughness method (the simplest kinematic wave model). Its applicationto the data of recent big-to moderate-sized floods in minor river basins (10-300km2in area) showed the usefulness of the method. However, there are some problems inthe method for its actual use, that are identification and stability problem ofparameters.These problems and related matters are discussed through a mathematical modelanalysis and data analysis, here.