比較自然災害論序説-天変地異とペスト-

Abstract

Recently，urban naturaldisasters have had severaldifferent aspectsin the proc－ess of propagation and enlargement of the disasters．Theyinclude paralleland／orsequentialoccurrences of naturaldisasters．Therefore，it is very difficult to predicttheloss oflife and damages ofinfrastructures．In order to mitigate the risk of thedisasters，it is necessary to deve10P a method to make clear the situation surroundedby many naturaland socialfactors，aS Wellas to synthesize ordinary methods fordisaster prevention．In this paper，the ana10gy Of disastersinJapan and plagueinEurope was discussed with many historicaldata of naturaldisasters andinfectiousdiseasesin medievaland early modern ages．Because the purpose of the compara－tive study on naturaldisastersis to predict their evolution，the difference of under－standing about naturalphenomenainJapanese and European people was oriented bythe experiences of the disasters．The population density can be estimated as thecontroIparameter tolead to pandemic and catastrophic disasters．The phase shiftwas firstly foundin the field of naturaldisaster phenomena．