都市水害論(4)-江戸時代の災害(つづき)と災害による社会変動モデル-

Abstract

In the 4 th report, as part of the natural hazards in the Edo period and their historical changes, fires and their changes due to population concentration in the urban areas are first considered, and secondly historical changes in riots and farmer disorders, and their localities are also studied by using Aoki's data of riots and disorders.In relation to urbanization in Edo, population was concentrated there, resulting in fire disasters which take seasonally place and increase annually.In the occurrence frequencies of riots and farmer disorders, remarkable locality in the clans exists due to their policy and rice currency which reflect social disturbances and riots.In the last part, a mathematical model for socio changes due to natural hazards and related social environment is proposed by applying current knowledge of synergetics. An application of the model through logistic models is made to the population changes in the Jomon, Yayoi and Edo periods.It was concluded that the population changes in these periods can be well explained by the model in relation to the occurrence frequencies of natural hazards and related social disturbances.